Abstract
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), as a product of natural gas processing that is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases mainly propane, butane, butylene and impurities such as Sulphur compound. LPG production and distribution in Nigeria appeared to have had limited growth over the last three decades before 2016. In this study, a stochastic model is applied to secondary historical data from 1994 to 2020, on the production, consumption and streamline distribution pattern for the country. Certain assumptions were made including changes in the various stages in the production value chains (production, storage, distribution, pipeline infrastructure, and supply chains) in-country.
Linear regression and correlation approaches were adopted, using the models which agreed with the plots from the Department of Petroleum Resources. It indicated that LPG consumption increased rapidly from 2016 upward following increases in infrastructural surplus, investment and awareness enlightenment initiatives. The results obtained have a strong correlation between demand-supply bond driven by market forces in the urban and suburban cities in-country. These indicators can be considered reliable parameters for sustainable strategic
planning, policy development and implementation for rapid economic recovery.